Collinson FX Market Commentary - March 25 - Flag vote hits KIWI

by Collinson FX on 26 Mar 2016 Collinson FX Market Commentary - March 25, 2016 - Flag vote hits Click here to find out how to get Collinson FX's free iPhone app

Mar 25 - Markets closed for the Easter Holidays lower for the shortened week. The Fed talking up the prospects of raising rates have stalled equity rallies and strengthened the Dollar. The EUR has dipped to 1.1150, while the GBP fell to 1.4150, impervious to the 'Brexit'. US Durable Goods Orders collapsed, from growth of 4.2%, to a contraction of 2.8%. The huge turnaround is a red flag for the all-important US consumer.

Commodities drifted and the associated currencies drifted under the weight of the reserve rally. The AUD now looks to test 0.7500 on the downside, while the NZ slipped below 0.6700, celebrating retention of the national flag. The new week will see a plethora of economic data release and further disruption and fallout from refugees and terrorism consuming Europe.

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Collinson FX Market Commentary - March 24, 2016 - Terror shakes Capital
Mar 24 - Pre-Easter markets remain quiet with little economic data being released and diverted by the Belgium terror attacks. The attacks have shaken the Capital of the EU, with ISIS making a statement, no-one in the West is safe! The instability will be reflected in markets, which undermines confidence, dragging an already weakened economy lower.

The Dollar gained some ground, due mainly to safety issues, rather than any economic reason. Fed members were out talking up interest rate rises which have lead to some support for the reserve. The EUR drifted back below 1.1200 and the GBP slipped to 1.4100.

The AUD has digested comments from the RBA Governor and decided there is some room to move on the Monetary front. This was reflected in the AUD, which fell below 0.7530, while the NZD looks to test 0.6700 on the downside.

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Collinson FX Market Commentary - March 23, 2016 - RBA Govenor optimistic
Mar 23 - Markets were totally pre-occupied overnight with the terror attacks in Brussels. The GBP held 1.4200, as Manufacturing and Services PMI were steady, from France, Germany and the EU. The EUR did slip back to 1.1200 after benign CPI data confirmed further QE may be required to spur growth.

RBA Governor Stevens commented, in his latest speech, that Australia was coping with the massive collapse in commodity prices and has more latitude than most in terms of monetary tools available to Central Banks. The AUD regained 0.7600, while the NZD drifted below 0.6740, further testing the cross rate.

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Collinson FX Market Commentary - March 22, 2016 - Election threat drops AUD

Mar 22 - Markets began a holiday shortened week quietly, with no major economic data release overnight, while little has occurred on the monetary front. Easter is coming and expectations are low for any major dramas in equities or currencies.

The Dollar regained some balance, with the EUR falling to 1.1250, while the GBP slipped below 1.4400. The UK Government was rocked by a ministerial resignation although this was associated with cuts rather than the topical 'Brexit'. Commodity prices drifted, to open the week, taking the shine out of recent gains in the associated currencies.

The NZD dipped to 0.6750, while the AUD ceded 0.7600, as PM Turnbull threatens an early 'Double Dip' election. This is becoming a more and more likely scenario!

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