Vendée Globe – Time to choose an option after Cape Horn
by CD and BS / Great Circle on 23 Dec 2016
Weather analysis – Pacific Ocean – Vendée Globe Great Circle
Armel Le Cléac'h has just rounded Cape Horn. It is now time to choose an option for him.
Cape Horn marks generally a radical change in the wind and sea conditions. Banque Populaire VIII had westerly winds around 15 to 20 knots while rounding Cape Horn. They should decrease within the coming 12 hours. Armel Le Cléac’h is thus going to have to choose between the various options which offer themselves to him.
The first one consists in passing by the Le Maire Strait, between Staten Island and South America. With light winds, this option is always risky because of the wind shadows and local effects.
The second option consists in continuing towards the East-North-East to pass in north or south of the Falkland Islands. This space is not very wide because of the icebergs drifting far to the the North after Cape Horn. The Antarctic exclusion zone is in pink on the chart.
The skipper is thus going to have to look for the wind corridor which will bring him most wind during the next 24 hours to minimize the losses on Hugo Boss which should arrive off Cape Horn on December 25th with a steady southerly wind, which will allow Alex Thomson to sail at full speed with his fully-functioning foil. In the medium term, the objective is to make gains to the North-east as far as possible before indicating left and sailing towards the Brazilian coast and the Equator.
At the moment, Alex Thomson is sailing upwind. He should tack in the afternoon to take advantage of a wind shift to the right. The wind should continue to shift towards the South, which will allow him to accelerate towards Cape Horn tomorrow.
Jérémie Beyou finally lost contact with the depression which was in front of him. It is now moving at 30 knots eastward, too fast for an Imoca 60 to follow. Maître Coq is in a ridge of high pressure, waiting for the northerly flow to arrive.
Jean-Pierre Dick is in a light wind zone while Yann Eliès and Jean Le Cam have more wind behind, which means they are able to reduce the gap with StMichel-Virbac.
Behind, the conditions are still good for the whole fleet. No big storm is expected for tomorrow. Bureau Vallée could be impacted by a small tropical depression which comes along from New Zealand and which should just be behind him on Christmas day.
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